The Breeders' Cup 2025 - Day 1
- Jordan
- Oct 31, 2025
- 8 min read
My favourite meeting in the calendar. As per usual, I've been tasked with finding a few winners, which is always easier said than done at this meeting, but we'll give it a go.
Race 6 (21:45) – Juvenile Turf Sprint
First up, we have the juvenile speed merchants on show. The Europeans are responsible for six of the twelve runners, with TRUE LOVE almost certain to go off as a warm favourite.
Speed Map: SCHWARZENEGGER – LENNILU – INTRICATE SPIRIT – BRUSSELS
There’s abundant speed drawn out in the car park here via SCHWARZENEGGER, who is rapid. While a wide gate is never a positive around Del Mar, I’d imagine JV will be confident in his mount’s ability to get across. He’s cutting back from 5½f, which will help his chances of leading from gate to wire, but that’s not an easy task over this course and distance given the run to the first turn. For that reason, I think he sets the race up perfectly for the closers.
LENNILU and INTRICATE SPIRIT would both be of interest (more so the latter) if they can slot into that handy position just in behind him, but chances are they end up doing too much and that the second rank becomes the ideal stalking spot. Make no mistake, though—it’s impossible to completely rule out SCHWARZENEGGER making all. His trainer has a fantastic record in this race, and his raw speed is unlike anything the Europeans will have encountered so far in their careers.
A few runners are likely to benefit from the frenetic pace, including MILITARY CODE, TRUE LOVE, and CY FAIR.
MILITARY CODE really shouldn’t be good enough on paper to win this, and there are doubts about his finishing effort, but he has the mechanics to handle a collapsing pace and is one of the few who might go toe-to-toe with TRUE LOVE in a prolonged duel to the line. History suggests he’s more likely to place than win, but he’s an interesting contender. The short straight may work against him, though, if he’s slow to stride as he has been on a few occasions.
TRUE LOVE is without doubt the class act here. She’s been consistent all season, and her Royal Ascot run proved she has no issue with a strongly run five. She’ll probably sit closer to the speed than most of her European rivals, which should put Wayne in the box seat turning for home. I assume he’ll just put a target on SCHWARZENEGGER’s back and throw the kitchen sink at her. Physically, she’s everything you’d want in a US turf sprinter, and when you compare her to HAVANA ANNA, for example, she towers above her. The trip she gets will be crucial.
CY FAIR should really be coming into this contest seeking a four-timer, having not got the best of rides when turned over at 4/7 at Saratoga on her penultimate start. Her form isn’t as strong as some of these, as she’s yet to be tested in graded company, but her win at Woodbine last time out was deeply impressive. Yes, it was a poor race, but her finishing effort was spectacular, and Civaci rode her like a man who knew the victory was sealed from the moment the gates opened. Her trainer doesn’t have a great record at the highest level, but the booking of Irad catches the eye.
INTRICATE SPIRIT is a difficult horse to get a handle on. His overall form isn’t anything to write home about, but he seemingly took a major step forward—on the clock at least—when winning the Futurity at Belmont. There’s an argument that he was well positioned given how that race unfolded, but any horse who can take a pull off a 21.4 opening quarter has an engine. When you then consider his finishing effort, his tendency to change leads, and how Rosario applied pressure through the saddle, it’s clear he’s far from the finished article. The short straight here may well play into his hands if Joel gets his timing right, and if SCHWARZENEGGER curls up, this may be the horse who gets first run on the Europeans. That alone makes him worthy of consideration at what’s likely to be a decent each-way price.
SUMMARY
A fascinating race. As always in the US, pace and position will be crucial. I can’t bring myself to back SCHWARZENEGGER, as classier horses than him have failed to make all in this race previously. I can’t back LENNILU because of her draw, HAVANA ANNA because of her mechanics, MILITARY CODE because of his suspect finishing effort coupled with the short straight, or MISSION CENTRAL because he’s been abandoned by Soumillon. All of this probably means I should just stick with TRUE LOVE and have done with it and I'm sure I'll throw her into the mix for forecast/tricast purposes, but I'm going to chance a couple of singles on the runners reviewed above who appeal as offering some EW value.
Selections: CY FAIR (9/1) & INTRICATE SPIRIT (22/1) - EW
Race 7 (22:25) – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
In recent years, this race has tended to be a little underwhelming, but this season’s renewal looks vintage. As always, the two key trials are the FRIZETTE (won by IRON ORCHID) and the ALCIBIADES (won by TOMMY JO, with PERCY’S BAR disqualified).
Pace Map: EXPLORA – SUPER CORREDORA – IRON ORCHID
Considering Baffert’s recent comments regarding EXPLORA and BOTTLE OF ROUGE, we have to assume the former will be sent to the lead here. She’s certainly too good to be used as a pacemaker, but my guess is Baffert will think that riding her aggressively covers all bases. If she gets a soft lead and makes all—great. However, if she faces pressure and wilts, BOTTLE OF ROUGE will be there to pick up the pieces.
BOTTLE OF ROUGE is an interesting contender, as she’s presumably been campaigned specifically for this race, but with no prior run at a mile and no start since early September, you’re putting a lot of faith in Baffert. However, in a field where many have stamina doubts, if Baffert is right about this filly needing every inch of the extended mile, she could come and break a few hearts in the finish.
Having explored those two, I’m back where I always end up here: looking at the FRIZETTE and the ALCIBIADES.
IRON ORCHID was held up in the Frizette off a very strong early clip. She looked to be poorly positioned, but when Rosario pushed the button, she left the field for dead. She was, however, paddling at the finish—but that’s to be expected given her trip and the strength of the early gallop. She was subsequently purchased for $2.5 million. The speed figure recorded there would still leave her a little short of what’s typically required to win this, and there must be some concern about her stamina if she’s fired up to contest the early running with EXPLORA. She does, however, offer some each-way value.
The ALCIBIADES was won by TOMMY JO in the stewards’ room. It was a fair DQ, as PERCY’S BAR gave her a hefty bump at the business end, and TOMMY JO was lucky not to come down. There is, however, a suspicion that PERCY had her measure at that point, and the sizeable drop-off in TOMMY JO’S figures on her first route start is a cause for concern. Prior to that, her performances at Saratoga over shorter had been exceptional. In the aftermath, her trainer stated that she was showing signs of being in season, which may have caused the flat performance. I’m not sure I buy that excuse, but her trackwork since has been strong, and she ticks most of the boxes—especially as PERCY has had one extra run this season, which has to be a negative in a race like this.
SUMMARY
The market here is likely to give punters a huge steer in the right direction. Not only will it reveal which way the Baffert camp leans, but it will also indicate whether TOMMY JO is expected to reverse prior form with PERCY’S BAR. My gut says we end up with TOMMY JO and BOTTLE OF ROUGE at the head of the market come post time, so I’m happy enough to Dutch them now at 5/1 and 7/2, with a small side bet on the combo forecast.
Selections: TOMMY JO (5/1) & BOTTLE OF ROUGE (7/2) - WIN
Race 8 (23:05) – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
This isn’t a race I need to spend much time on. Aidan runs PRECISE here and if she can negotiate a clean trip from stall 13, nothing in this field will get near her. She has a very similar profile to connections’ previous winners LAKE FORREST and MEDIATE. Her ratings are miles clear of the field, and with so much dead weight, you’d have to imagine this race falls apart coming into the straight as the cream rises to the top.
For those looking for some each-way value, it should come via IMAGINATIONTHELADY, QUEEN OF HAWAII, and GROUND SUPPORT. All three have the talent to give the favourite a race, but frankly, it would be the shock of the meeting if any of them were to lower the colours of PRECISE.
Selection: PRECISE (10/11) - WIN
Race 9 (23:45) – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Dirt)
This is always one of my favourite races on the card as it’s such an intriguing puzzle to solve.
Pace Map: BRANT – LITMUS TEST – COMFORT
The market suggests we have a two-horse race here, and I tend to agree.
TED NOFFEY comes here undefeated, having been mightily impressive in all three career starts. His last run came in the Futurity over the extended mile at Keeneland. LITMUS TEST set a solid early gallop, and TED NOFFEY came there swinging into the turn before putting the field to bed, with only BLACKOUT TIME able to get anywhere near him. That performance propelled him to the head of the market here, and rightly so. He ticks most boxes, Pletcher has won two of the last three renewals, and he should get a pace scenario to suit. History, however, shows that favourites often come undone in this race—only two have managed to win in the past decade, both trained by Baffert.
INTREPIDO won the American Pharoah on his last start, which has tended to be a good trial for this race. Having sat just behind the early pace, victory looked unlikely approaching the furlong marker, but the horse dug deep and came over the top to nail his two market rivals close home. It was a good run, and you have to admire his attitude—but to win again today, he’ll need to improve significantly. I just can’t see that happening.
BRANT is arguably the most interesting runner we’ll see at Del Mar this evening. He cost $3,000,000 at the breeze-ups and carries a huge reputation. He was consigned by Mr Pinhook himself, Eddie Wood, and after breaking the sales record with this colt, Wood brought the curtain down on a remarkable career in bloodstock. So far, the horse hasn’t disappointed—he’s won both starts over sprint trips.
As with BOTTLE OF ROUGE earlier, we have a runner tackling a route trip for the first time at the highest level. That always complicates matters for punters, but this son of GUN RUNNER has elite stamina scattered throughout his pedigree. He has homefield advantage, Baffert has a tremendous record in this contest, and crucially, he’s spent the past six weeks building collateral form lines with the opposition. He has an abundance of classy milers, yet Baffert chooses to throw this untested colt into the deep end—that could be telling. The horse is said to have a fantastic temperament, and it would be fitting if he were to be crowned champion this evening given his remarkable journey into racing. I’m not sure I’d want to bet against him.
SUMMARY
While BRANT doesn’t tick all the traditional trend boxes, everything suggests the stable expects him to take this in his stride. He has everything you look for in a dirt miler, and if he can beat TED NOFFEY tonight, Baffert might start getting very excited about just how good this colt could be.
Selection: BRANT (5/2) – WIN
So, that completes my review of day one. Well done for making it to the end! Hopefully, I've managed to find a few winners and whatever happens, I'm sure we'll be treated to a feast of top-class racing this evening. Providing I have some money left in the old betting bank come midnight, then we will do it all over again tomorrow.
Good luck!
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